Commentary
Mixed Picture in Stock Market
By Harry Boxer
Jan 9, 2007, 20:15

The market had a semi-volatile day that ended in a very mixed fashion. 

The day started out with a slight bump to the upside.  They pulled back and tested support and then rallied to new session highs, but failed to follow through.  The NDX at that point got up to last week’s rally highs just under 1800.  They sold off rather sharply in the morning, reaching session lows just before lunch hour.  But they stabilized there and rallied very strongly, with the NDX making nominal new highs in the early afternoon. However, at that point the S&P failed at its declining tops line and failed to make new session highs. The non-confirmation caused a pullback. The pullback lasted about a half hour, and they then rallied back solidly into the last half hour, with the NDX sticking its head out above 1800, getting up to 1802.44 before a last 20-minute pullback brought it down.

Net on the day the Nasdaq 100 closed at it 1795.63, up 8.49.  However, the Dow was down 6.89 and the S&P 500 down about 3/4 of a point.  The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) managed to move ahead by 3.44, which helped Nasdaq today.

The technicals were non confirming, particularly on Nasdaq, where advance-declines were 15 to 14 negative on an up-day.  Up/down volume was just 5 to 4 positive on Nasdaq, but 9 to 7 negative on the NYSE, so indeed a mixed picture today. Total volume on the NYSE was just under 1.7 billion, and Nasdaq traded about 2 billion today.

TheTechTrader.com board was mixed.  Outstanding gainers were Gmarket (GMKT) up 1.75, American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB) up 1.20, and Sigma Designs (SIGM) up 1.34.

Other stocks of note, China Precision Steel (CPSL) was up 52 cents, Fuwei Films (FFHL) up 50 cents, and Taser (TASR) up 29 cents.

On the downside, point-plus losers were Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN), down 1.76, and Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), down 1.19.  Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) lost 90 cents, Chindex (CHDX), China GrenTech  85 cents, and (GRRF) 80 cents, in an mostly weak Chinese sector.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the key to today’s action on the S&P was that on a couple occasions the index probed its declining 40-day moving average on the hourly charts, but failed to break through. 

The NDX did the same at around the 1800 level, and despite getting through by a couple points failed to hold it, selling off at the end of the day.  So, the jury is still out on the direction they’ll take, but over the last four sessions it’s basically been a consolidation of last week’s upmove on the NDX. 

The S&P 500, however, is markedly weaker, holding in a declining channel for the last five days, peeking its head out above that late in the session, but again failing to hold it.

Levels we’ll be watching are resistance at 1416 on the S&P 500, and support at 1404-05. NDX support is at the 1775-80 zone, with resistance around the 1800-02 area.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.

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